Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Dynasty Leagues


By now most sports fans are familiar with fantasy leagues and the undeniable appeal of stepping into the shoes of an imaginary general manager. Every year 27 million fantasy enthusiasts participate in drafting, managing, trading, and adjusting lineups, all in the hopes of beating the other would-be general managers in their league. The level of immersion, however, depends on the type of league in which you participate.

There are three basic types of leagues: standard (or redraft), keeper, and dynasty. The vast majority of those 27 million fantasy players participate in standard leagues. A smaller percentage of those 27 million players participate in keeper leagues. The final type of league, of which an even smaller percentage of fantasy players participate, is a dynasty league.

Dynasty leagues require a multi-year commitment from team owners, but present perhaps the most immersive experience a fantasy player can have. Though rules vary from league to league, the basics of a dynasty league are fairly straightforward. In the first year of a fantasy league teams may draft any player available at the time of selection. It is during this initial draft that the variances between standard leagues and dynasty leagues first come into play. After the initial draft in a dynasty league players remain on the same team from season to season unless managers trade them or release them. Knowing that a player is going to remain on your roster for the long-term makes it imperative that managers take into account future value as opposed to value for just this year.

To demonstrate this influence let’s take a look at two wide receivers for the 2010 NFL season: Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson. In a standard league most would agree that Moss should be selected ahead of Johnson based on value for the upcoming season alone. In a dynasty league, however, the decision is not that simple.

First and foremost is the age difference. While Moss may currently be one of the two or three best receivers in the NFL, he is 33. Moss’ best years are behind him. Drafting him offers you no upside; you do not draft Moss expecting him to get better. You draft Moss expecting stats similar to last year’s with a very realistic potential for decline. By contrast, Johnson is 25. He is already a top 10 wide receiver in the NFL, and he has as much upside as any other pass-catcher in the league. You draft Johnson expecting better numbers than last year with increasingly better stats in the years to come.

Marvin Harrison, Cris Carter, and Michael Irvin are three recent wide receivers with career arcs similar to that of Moss. All three of these elite receivers' fantasy value collapsed between the ages of 33 to 35. Based on their careers it is likely that Moss has 2 possibly 3 more years of good to elite performance before his fantasy value collapses. By contrast, if Johnson’s potential and scouting reports are to be believed, he is barely entering his prime performance years where he has the ability to give you 8-10 more years of elite performance.

Another factor to consider between these two receivers is their quarterback situation. No one will argue that right now Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Matt Stafford, but the question is for how much longer. Stafford was the first overall selection in the NFL draft last year because he has the potential to be one of the best quarterbacks in the game. You combine a young superstar quarterback with a young superstar wide receiver and you get the makings of a fantastic fantasy duo for the next decade. Further muddling Moss’ fantasy outlook is the fact that Brady is currently in the final year of his contract. While it would be a shocker if Brady left the Patriots for another team, it remains a possibility after this season. Should Brady leave, that would be devastating to Moss’ value. Everyone remembers Moss’ Raider years. With no quarterback to throw to him Moss became a pouty underachiever.

So what does all this mean to a dynasty league manager? It means that no one would belittle you for drafting Johnson ahead of Moss under the dynasty format. In fact, drafting Johnson first may be the prudent choice given the variety of factors working in Johnson’s favor for the foreseeable future. These are factors dynasty league managers have to consider in differentiating the value for hundreds of NFL players. Dynasty league managers have to build teams for the now and the later. It is these considerable factors that make the dynasty format so much more immersive than other formats.

The inaugural draft is just one of the mechanisms differentiating standard leagues from dynasty leagues. Once a season ends, so too does the standard league. This is not the case for dynasty leagues. The offseason is where decisions have to be made that will affect your team not only for the next season, but several seasons to come. Much like the real NFL, mistakes in personnel can set your team back years.

During the season, dynasty leagues play similarly to their standard and keeper counterparts. One important nuance is the injured player. In a standard league you would not hesitate to release a player that is injured and out for the season or a significant portion of the season. In dynasty leagues, however, you cannot simply drop a player because he is done for the year. Again, managers have to think about the future. If your first round pick was performing at a high level but was injured and out for the year, you cannot simply release him. That is too much future value to simply let go back into the free agent pool. For this reason dynasty leagues often have one or two “IR” spots on the roster. This means a manager can place an injured player on “IR” for the rest of the season and pick up another player without having to sacrifice the injured player to free agency. Other dynasty leagues do not offer “IR” options leaving managers a tough decision of sacrificing a bench spot on a player who will no longer play the rest of the season.

After the inaugural season, rosters are determined by the rules of each individual league. Some dynasty leagues have subsequent shorter drafts (e.g. 6 rounds) where only rookies are available for drafting. After the draft, managers must make “cuts” releasing players to the waiver wire, where other teams can choose to make a waiver claim on a player. Other leagues open up all available fantasy free agents during the draft, including rookies. Managers then make cuts after the draft. Because of the increased value of rookies, dynasty owners must be more cognizant of college players than standard league managers. Many times the only impact players available in a dynasty league will be rookies.

Dynasty leagues offer dedicated managers a much more immersive and demanding experience than standard leagues. Building a competitive, successful team requires preparation, effective decision making, and some luck along the way, but true fantasy fans would not have it any other way.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Keeper Leagues

Every year my buddies and I got together in our usual league and played fantasy football. We followed the same rules each and every year and nothing really changed. I was the commissioner and always organized the league. Eventually, it began to get repetitive and I thought, “Why don’t we try something different? Why don’t we do a keeper league?” That was all it took and we were all on board.


A keeper league is different from a standard redraft league in that each year you don’t completely start over. In a keeper league you have an inaugural draft where all players are available to be drafted. After that the first year follows as any other league would. The offseason is where things change. During the offseason instead of allowing all teams to start over the next year, each team is required to keep a certain amount of players from their roster (decided by league rules). During each subsequent draft after the first, these “keepers” will be taken out of the draft pool and placed on their appropriate team and teams will need to stock their teams with the players that are available. This forces owners to be more informed about available players and make more difficult decisions. At this point in the draft there are no Chris Johnson’s available.

There are many different variations that occur based on the league so here are some suggestions. One of the best things that I have seen is the implementation of a league constitution. If you are going to be playing with friends each year, it is important to have guidelines so that fair play is practiced by all. Another good idea I have seen is the implementation of a standard draft. Usually in a standard redraft league you have a serpentine draft where the team that picks first in one round picks last in the next, essentially creating a snaking motion through the draft. By having a standard draft it allows the teams that came in last to pick first in every round and improve their team. Another interesting idea is the ability to trade draft picks. This takes a bit more work as the commissioner has to keep track of trades that include draft picks but it encourages more trades to occur and gives extra ammunition to teams who do not have many good players to trade. Finally, a common trait that many keeper leagues share is a league trophy. Since you are basically playing with the same people each year, by having the league pitch in to buy a trophy it makes the game that much more fun. If you are playing each year, it is nice to have something to play for.

When it comes to keeper strategy you want to make sure you are thinking about the present but at the same time preparing for the future. With only a limited number of players that you can keep, it’s important to constantly be evaluating your team and making adjustments through trades, free agency, and “keepers.” As your team grows and develops, as an owner you need to be aware when players are beginning to lose their skill and when it is time to trade in for a younger player. Also, it’s important to decide wisely about who you are going to keep. If you somehow got four good running backs you need to decide, which will you keep and what will you accept for one or two of them. You can not possibly keep them all because you are wasting roster space. So you have to make a move at the most opportune time. If you wait until a week before the draft, then you are going to make a bad decision as you have given yourself very little time to create space. And everyone is going to know that. In a keeper league the market for players is different than a standard redraft league. Since owners are keeping players from their previous squad, then each team has a specific need. Also, if you have extra players it is important to receive as much as you can, when you can.

I like keeper leagues because it gives me the closest experience to owning my own team. I have to make trades to maximize my roster all the while getting what I can for players I don’t plan on keeping. It’s a game of risk since we don’t know who is going to step up and we might let a cornerstone of a team go and get nothing for him. We try our best and trust in our knowledge to make the best decision just like the general manager of our favorite team. Ask yourself, “Could I be a general manager of a team?” In a keeper league, you might find the answer.

Sunday, August 8, 2010

PPR Leagues

Are so-called top fantasy football running backs overrated? If you are an experienced fantasy football player, this may seem like a very dumb question to you. However, if you are a member of a PPR, or points per reception league, this is a very important question to consider. While many of us that have played fantasy football for years, whether in a standard redraft, keeper, or dynasty league, the picks that we plan for the first few rounds are often filled with running backs. While we all would jump at the chance to draft upper echelon running backs such as Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, and Maurice Jones-Drew, that run for a ton of yards, if you are a member of a PPR league you may want to tread carefully beyond these players.


In PPR leagues each reception that a player makes is worth a certain amount, usually 1 point. This makes the receiver position much more valuable and it vaults them above running backs that can’t catch passes. Most leagues have the same five running backs going first, but after the top five you will be better off taking a top-tier wide receiver. The reason for this is that after the “can’t miss” running backs, the rest of the backs all are similar and fit into a certain tier. Top tier players are the elite at their position. They have a consistent track record and you can expect them to produce certain numbers. So when it comes to running backs you take the safe pick and then you head over to the top tier wide receivers.

Last year the highest scoring wide receiver in PPR formats had 262 points (Andre Johnson, Houston). At the same time, five receivers had a hundred catches or more. That means 5 players got their owners 100 points without factoring in yardage or touchdowns. If you expand the search for receivers with 80+ catches then the number moves up to 12 WRs. Eleven players had a third of what Johnson had without even factoring touchdowns or yardage. I don’t have to tell you that you don’t want to be without an 80 catch receiver on your team. Think about it, 12 receivers in a standard 12 team league means one per team. But if you’re too busy selecting running backs or quarterbacks, then you won’t have one on your team and competing will be extremely difficult.

You don’t need me to tell you to select Johnson, or Larry Fitzgerald but there are some guys who get a huge boost in PPR leagues. Wes Welker is definitely the biggest value when it comes to PPR leagues. In 2009, while playing in only 13 complete games he had 122 receptions, 15 more than the nearest receiver! Another guy whose value goes up in PPR is Hines Ward. Ward had the sixth most receptions in the league last year with 95. Finally, the last player that has great value in PPR is Steve Smith (NYG), who had 107 receptions last year and became a top ten receiver.

A PPR league gives you the option to make a slight change that will increase scoring in your league and offer you a new way to gauge your football I.Q. By understanding how points per reception changes your draft and the manner in which you select your players you will increase your understanding of football and the importance that receivers have on the game. Football is much more than scoring touchdowns and getting yards. It’s about moving the chains by making catches and PPR leagues acknowledge that. Now that you know all about a PPR league, go out and join one!