NFL Pick'Em Challenge: Week 3

Congratulations to this week's NFL Pick'Em Challenge contestant, Basilio G. Basilio has set his sights on the top spot and will be trying to overtake our current leader Dominic M. Let's jump right into his picks:

Kansas City over San Francisco
Tennessee over New York Giants
Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh
Minnesota over Detroit
New Orleans over Atlanta
Baltimore over Cleveland
New England over Buffalo
Cincinnati over Carolina
Dallas over Houston
Washington over St. Louis
Philadelphia over Jacksonville
San Diego over Seattle
Oakland over Arizona
Indianapolis over Denver
New York Jets over Miami
Green Bay over Chicago

Basilio has got some guts taking the Bucs over the Steelers this week. But who knows? That's why they play the games. Well good luck to you, Basilio and good luck to all of you this weekend in fantasy. May Lady Luck smile upon you.

Studs and Duds: Week 3

Numbers never lie. We’ve all heard the expression and know it to be true. However, sometimes we get a gut feeling and we pass on the probable and take a chance hoping for a big payoff. That is why the casinos are multi-billion dollar enterprises and most of us are their patsies. We spend hundreds of dollars on a game that may last less than three hours in order to satisfy our hunger for competition. We want to demonstrate our dominance on something that we have no control over. The game could be poker, roulette, or fantasy football.


I want to take this time to focus on those gut feelings. We have them on a nearly weekly basis while we are setting up our lineup. Often we get that feeling that a certain player is going to go off even though the “fantasy experts” say that they are not. If you’re like me you push those thoughts out of your head and go by the numbers. If you’re a gambler, then you take a chance for the big payoff. If you’re right, then you look like a genius. It’s like you knew something that the rest of us missed. If you’re wrong, then you usually sit there kicking yourself for not making the obvious call. Today I’m going to help you make those tough calls by “looking at the numbers.”


STUDS


Quarterbacks:

Mike Vick vs. Jacksonville

Wow, two weeks in a row! We must really like Vick. Even though we here at The Fantasy Football Post are all about second chances I like Vick more for this matchup than for his skill set. The Jags have given up 600 yards through the air as well as four touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. In other words, start Mike Vick.

Joe Flacco vs. Cleveland

The Browns are actually decent against the pass as they have only given up 341 yards this season. However, those two games were against the Bucs and Chiefs, two sloppy offenses. The number that catches my eye from this game is 2, the number of touchdowns that the Browns have given up through the air, compared to the 0 they have given up on the ground. I think Flacco and co. will get their scores through the air this week; which makes him a great play.

Running Backs:

Correll Buckhalter vs. Indianapolis

Remember week 1? Arian Foster? Well. I bet you don’t know that even though the Giants felll behind 24-0 at half last week; running back Ahmad Bradshaw still gained 89 yards rushing at an average of 5.23 a clip. I expect the Broncos to be at least in this game at half so they should be able to give Buckhalter, starting for an injured Knowshon Moreno, enough opportunities to rack up the yards.

Jahvid Best vs. Minnesota

Think this is a gut feeling call? No way. The Vikes are allowing less than 160 yards passing (bad for a QB) and are allowing 100 yards rushing (good for a RB) per game. Plus, Best was the Arian Foster of fantasy for week 2. Best is a good start as a number 2 back and a great start at the flex position.

Wide Receivers:

Malcolm Floyd vs. Seattle

The Seahawks have been great against the run through two weeks allowing less than 60 yards per game. On the other hand they are allowing over 250 yards through the air. This benefits the Chargers, Malcolm Floyd, and his owners. This week Mike Tolbert is starting in place of Ryan Mathews and that will force the Chargers to throw a bit more. Also, keep in mind that the Chargers continued throwing late in last week’s game against the Jaguars even though they were in control throughout.

Santana Moss vs. St. Louis

The Rams give up yards both through the air and on the ground but the ‘Skins can’t run the ball and that means a positive passing outlook for Moss. The Rams give up about 250 yards a game and this bodes well for a team whose strength is its passing game. St. Louis may not be able to keep up with Moss who can beat them both short and deep.

Tight End:

Mercedes Lewis vs. Philadelphia

Forget that the Jags will be down early and have to throw to stay in this game. Let’s focus on how the Eagles have given up nearly 250 yards a game for a total of 4 touchdowns this season. The Eagles give up a lot of short passes; which means more looks for the tight end and a busy Sunday for Lewis this week.


DUDS

Quarterbacks:

Kyle Orton vs. Indianapolis

The way to beat the Colts is on the ground. The positive for Orton owners is that he is going to have to throw this game however I don’t feel that those passes are going to find his receivers. The Colts average less than 120 yards passing per game and there is no reason to believe that Kyle Orton will do what Eli Manning and Matt Schaub could not.

Mark Sanchez vs. Miami

I know plenty of people got excited about Sanchez’s performance this past weekend. However, the truth is that this week he is playing a team whose strength is its defense. The Dolphins are holding their opponents to around 160 yards per game and giving up 100 yards per game rushing. Expect the Jets to run the ball a lot and try to wear down the Miami Defense.

Running Backs:

Dallas RBs vs. Houston

This is more a statement about the Houston secondary than the Cowboys three headed monster, Barjoice. The Texans have given up 822 yards passing in two games. With Tony Romo quarterbacking why would you run the ball? No really, why would you?

DeAngelo Williams vs. Cincinnati

The Panthers are having trouble getting their ground game going and now they face off against a team that gives up 110 yards per game on the ground. That’s good news you say? Oh yeah, divide that by one third because that’s about as many touches fellow back Jonathan Stewart is slated to get. Not a good scene for D-Will this week.

Wide Receivers:

Randy Moss vs. Buffalo

What?? Randy Moss a dud against Buffalo?? I know, but the numbers speak for themselves. The Bills give up 210 yards a game through the air. That number isn’t good but by Bills’ standards its great. Expect the Pats to throw early to Wes Welker and then take this opportunity to get their running backs involved.

Steve Smith (NYG) vs. Tennessee

The Tennessee Titans have given up 171 passing yards… all season! Yes they can be run on and their special teams is poor, but they can’t be thrown on. That sets up an unfavorable matchup for Mr. Smith and the rest of the receivers. Smith is as likely to catch a pass as fellow wideouts Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks. That makes him untrustworthy for this weekend.

Tight End:

Kellen Winslow vs. Pittsburgh

Winslow has had a tiny jolt to his stats based on the Bucs success in the passing game. This week he faces the Steelers who have allowed one passing touchdown to four interceptions. The Steelers D is the top scoring defense in fantasy through two weeks and that makes me look elsewhere for a tight end if I have K2.

Starting 5 Challenge: Week 3

Can The Post redeem itself after that gold medal collapse last week?  I put together my own Redeem Team to take on this week's contestant, Carlos Y.  Can Carlos join Eric M. in the raffle or will The Post return to its winning ways?  After Monday, we'll find out.  Let's look at both team's starting 5:

Fantasy Football Post:

QB: Tony Romo v. Houston
RB: Ray Rice v. Cleveland
WR: Malcolm Floyd v. Seattle
TE: Jermichael Finley v. Chicago
K: Josh Scobee v. Philadelphia

Carlos Y.:

QB: Tom Brady v. Buffalo
RB: Adrian Peterson v. Detroit
WR: Miles Austin v. Houston
TE: Antonio Gates v. Seattle
K: Neil Rackers v. Dallas

The matchup is set and we look forward to getting back on track with a W over Carlos Y.  However, if somehow we can't beat his team; we'll give him entry into our special raffle for the Brian Dawkins football.

Did you miss the signup for our Starting 5 Challenge?  Well don't fret, there is still time to do this week's NFL Pick'Em.  Send your picks to postfantasyfootball@gmail.com by Saturday for a chance to dethrone our current leader, Dominic.  Remember, you can't win if you don't send in.

What I Learned This Weekend: Week 2

There is no place like home. After taking the first week of the column on the road to New Orleans, I came back home to San Diego to catch the Chargers’ home opener. I again, walked to the game for a second straight week but this time with a more subdued crowd of people. As I arrived in one of the biggest parking lots in the NFL, I saw tailgating being done all over the place. People in SD tailgate a lot differently than other places. Sure we have the common football feast of hamburgers, hot dogs, and beer. But we do things differently with our carne asada and games of cornhole, touch football, and bolo toss. We love our team but we have infused our laid back style to our viewing of the game. Sometimes the game isn’t the main event of the day, sometimes it’s the pregame or postgame party. From my travels I understand that people in other parts of the country, especially the East and South, consider that a sacrilege. But that’s how we do it in California. I love going to watch the Chargers play because the game, to me, is the climax of the day.

This weekend I learned that I’m not the typical San Diego guy who loves to party on Football Sunday. And I’m okay with that because I’m a knowledgeable, diehard football fan. I mean, if I wasn’t then this blog probably wouldn’t be happening right now. So to all my diehard football fans I salute you and all my partiers keep the party going each and every Sunday. Because no matter how we celebrate Football Sunday, we do it together.

Week 2 is in the books and as always the weekend has come and gone and we are left with new a perception of the fantasy football landscape that we didn’t have last week, let alone before the season started. As we prepare for week 3, we must look back and learn from week 2.

This weekend I learned who the 8th best quarterback is. As mentioned in this blog previously, there are 7 top quarterbacks that you should have tried to select in your draft (Rodgers, P. Manning, Brady, Brees, Romo, Schaub, and Rivers). Well who should you have on your team if you didn’t get those guys? Before the season I would have said Flacco, Favre, or Kolb. Flacco and Favre have thrown one touchdown and five and four picks respectively. Kolb on the on the other hand, lost his starting job. So who is the 8th quarterback? Jay Cutler. Cutler has 5 touchdown throws to only 1 interception. If he keeps this up then he will be a great steal for any owner who picked him up this year.

This weekend I also learned that LaDanian Tomlinson still has something left in the tank. LT has been a more dominating runner than fellow Jets back, Shonn Greene. Tomlinson has 60 more yards rushing than Greene and more catches as well. Even though I think that Greene will get on track, I learned that LT still has value and could be a very solid bye week replacement.

This weekend I learned that Donovan McNabb is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy. He gets no respect. Now I know that McNabb has had to constantly prove his doubters wrong but for the first time that I can remember, D-Mac didn’t get the love in fantasy circles. I saw the man being drafted in the 11th round for goodness sake! I understand that he went from a pass happy offense in Philly to Mike Shannahan’s offense in D.C. but his talent is still there. I saw that McNabb still has “it”, and I would get my roll on with him as my starter if I didn’t have one of the top 8.

Finally, this weekend I learned that the Pittsburgh Defense has returned. It’s hard to imagine that a defense could be so dependent on one player, but the return of Troy Polamalu has jump started the Pittsburgh D to where it was 3 years ago, at an elite level. The D has given up 20 points in the first two games and has recorded 6 sacks, 4 fumbles, and 4 interceptions. Expect the defense to continue this pace throughout the season and to finish in the top 3 defenses this year.

Every week our fantasy world changes. Some times it changes ever so slightly that we have to pay close attention to adjust accordingly. Other times the world turns on its head and we are left trying to make sense of what we saw. But remember, that no matter what you think you know you’ll have learned something new next weekend.

Challenges

The Fantasy Football Post readers are awesome as both of our challenge participants had positive outcomes in their respective contests.  Dominic M. took the lead in our NFL Pick'Em Challenge by nailing 10 out of 16 picks for a percentage of .625.  That's good enough to give him the early lead and to make him the man to beat.

In our other challenge, The Starting 5 Challenge, Eric M. came out and whooped on The Post by a score of 33-21.  Congratulations to Eric!  We tried our best but we just couldn't beat him.  Eric has now won entry into our end of the year raffle for an autographed Brian Dawkins football.

Now it's time to announce The Posts' Starting 5 for the Starting 5 Challenge.  Remember, you can submit one quarterback, ruuning back, wide receiver, tight end, and kicker; so long as we haven't selected them.  Here are the players that you can not choose, otherwise known as our Starting 5:

QB: Tony Romo v. Houston
RB: Ray Rice v. Cleveland
WR: Malcolm Floyd v. Seattle
TE: Jermichael Finley v. Chicago
K: Josh Scobee v. Philadelphia

If you think that you can dethrone our Pick'Em leader Dominic or beat The Post in our Starting 5 Challenge then send us an email at postfantasyfootball@gmail.com and send us your picks for either contest.  Make sure you put the contest name and the week so that we know that you want entry into this week.  Our Starting 5 Challenge contestant will be picked on Thursday evening and our NFL Pick'Em player will be selected on Saturday.  Let's begin the preparation for next Sunday's games.