What are some of the things we learned from Week 1? Well, Peyton Manning and Chris Johnson are still fantasy studs. Brett Favre and Shonn Greene? Eh, not so much. Those sounding the fantasy death knell of Chad Ochocinco may have been a tad premature (looking at you Fantasy Football Post Editor). New fantasy stars have emerged (Arian Foster and Hakeem Nicks). Old fantasy stars have re-emerged (Matt Forte and Michael Vick). So what does all this mean? Nothing. Yet. It’s only Week 1. It is too early to panic or celebrate. Shonn Greene owners shouldn’t throw in the towel just yet. By the same token, Ochocinco owners shouldn’t think he is a number one fantasy receiver.
In Greene’s case there could not have been a worse possible scenario to open the season. The Ravens were second against the run last year and showed every bit of continuing that trend this year (yes, LaDanian Tomlinson ran for 62 yards, but a third of those yards came on one run). Greene’s quarterback, Mark Sanchez, did not help in the least passing for only 74 yards. The Ravens had no respect for the Jets’ passing game as they consistently stacked 8 or 9 in the box. Greene’s two fumbles did not help matters. That being said, this is likely Greene’s worst game of the season. Fantasy owners should not give up on him just yet, but keep an eye on that fumbling problem as Tomlinson is likely to gain a greater share of carries than we thought.
Ochocinco’s big game can be directly attributed to the circumstances of the game. The Bengals were down big early in the game and were forced to throw and throw often. Carson Palmer threw 50 times on Sunday. Palmer has only thrown 50 times or more in a game on three other occasions. That is why Ochocinco, Terrell Owens, Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham (see our Tight End Stud below) had so many targets. I would not expect Ochocinco to have many games like this as the Bengals are still a run first team, though that may change this year. Sell high on Ochocinco if you can get number one receiver value for him. The Bengals have too many viable receiving threats for Ochocinco to be considered a number one receiver. He’s not going to tank this season, but he is not going to be the player we saw last Sunday.
Now on to our Week 2 Studs and Duds. As always we will spare you the obvious starts and sits.
STUDS:
Quarterback:
Michael Vick vs. Detroit – It is official that Kevin Kolb will be out this week against the Lions. Andy Reid has said that Kolb will be his quarterback when he comes back, but it is not going to be this week. The Lions were 29th against the pass last year. Vick is not the most accurate of quarterbacks, but he should feast on the Lions weak defense with his arms and his legs. Look for Vick to rack up passing and rushing stats.
Carson Palmer vs. Baltimore – As mentioned earlier the Ravens were number two against the run last year. The Bengals will be forced to attack the Ravens through the air. The Ravens will be sans Ed Reed, their ball-hawking safety. With all the new weapons at Palmer’s disposal I would expect the Bengals’ passing game to look much better than the Jets did on Monday. Look for Palmer to score big this week.
Running Back:
Thomas Jones/Jamaal Charles vs. Cleveland – Charles owners are likely starting him regardless this week with his enticing matchup. Jones owners should be playing him as a low end number two running back. The Browns were dead last against the run last year. Chiefs’ coach Todd Haley seems intent on splitting carries between these two, despite Charles’ superior production with the touches he is given. Both running backs should have nice stats against the lowly Browns.
Darren McFadden vs. St. Louis – I cannot believe I am recommending McFadden, but after last week’s performance and the Raiders matchup against the Rams, McFadden is a solid flex option this week. The Rams were 31st against the run last year. McFadden’s problem has not been his talent, but his inability to stay healthy. Last week he showed what he can do by turning in what has been the best performance of his career to date. He should continue that production this week against the Rams. Even if Michael Bush plays, he should not vulture too many carries as he will be limited by his thumb injury.
Wide Receiver:
Jeremy Maclin vs. Detroit – See Michael Vick above. Maclin was actually the third option at wide receiver for Vick last week as both DeSean Jackson and Jason Avant were targeted more often. Watch for Maclin to improve the number of targets this week as Vick looks to air it out against the Lions suspect passing defense. Jackson and Maclin should have big games with Avant suffering a letdown as Brent Celek becomes the short - intermediate route option for Vick.
Danny Amendola vs. Oakland – Amendola was targeted nine times last week despite all the looks Mark Clayton received. Outside of Nnamdi Asomugha, the Raiders’ passing defense can be exploited as Vince Young and the Titans showed last week. With Clayton likely to be covered by Asomugha, look for Amendola to receive some extra attention this week from Bradford. Double digit catches from Amendola this week should not be surprising.
Tight End:
Jermaine Gresham vs. Baltimore – See Carson Palmer above. Gresham looks to be every bit the red zone threat he was in the preseason. He was targeted ten times last week by Palmer. Once the Bengals get in the red zone, Gresham should get plenty of opportunities to score a TD this week.
DUDS
Quarterback:
Vince Young vs. Pittsburgh –Young seems to have turned the corner in his career, and has become a much more complete passer. That being said this is not a good matchup for Young. Pittsburgh did not surrender a passing touchdown last week against the Falcons. Look for both teams to grind this game out on the ground much to the chagrin of Vince Young owners. Young may pick up some yardage rushing, but his passing stats will be limited by the Steelers.
David Garrard vs. San Diego – The Chargers held Matt Cassel to 68 yards passing on Monday. The Chargers have an underrated secondary. Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason are more than capable of stifling the Jaguars limited passing game. Conversely, the Chargers showed that they can be run on. With one of the best running backs in the game in Maurice Jones Drew, the Jaguars will run and run a lot against the Chargers.
Running Back:
Shonn Greene vs. New England – Earlier I said not to panic just yet on Greene. That being said, this is not the week he breaks out. While the Patriots secondary is suspect, the strength of their defense is their front seven. Cedric Benson was limited to 43 yards and an average of 2.9 yards per carry on Sunday. New England’s run defense is solid. Add LaDainian Tomlinson’s resurgence and that spells a down week for Greene.
Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown vs. Minnesota – The Vikings had the number one run defense last year. It all starts in the middle with the best defensive tackle combination in the NFL – Pat and Kevin Williams. Brown and Ricky Williams split carries evenly. The combination of limited carries and facing the best run defense in the league means a bad fantasy week for both of these running backs.
Wide Receiver:
Randy Moss vs. New York Jets – Darrelle Revis. Moss faced Revis twice last year. He had 58 yards combined in those games. Revis will shut down anybody in the league, including Moss. If you have Moss you have to play him, but I would not expect even an average game from Moss this week.
Mark Clayton vs. Oakland – Clayton was a popular pickup in many leagues. If you own him he looks like a good play this week as a third wide receiver or a flex spot. He quickly became a favorite target of Sam Bradford’s. He was targeted 16 times last week – second most behind Roddy White’s ridiculous 23 targets. That being said, Clayton is likely going to be matched up against Nnamdi Asomugha. Asomugha is an elite shut down corner and should eliminate Clayton’s production this week.
Tight End:
Any Patriot Tight End vs. New York Jets – Odds are that either AlgeCrumpler, Rob Gronkowski, or Aaron Hernandez will have a decent game. The problem is choosing the right one. The Jets defense is likely to limit the vaunted Patriots’ offense to an extent. The Patriot tight ends are likely to suffer as well. It is best to avoid any of these tight ends this week.
