Studs and Duds: Week 4

It really bothers me when people blame their players' bye week as the reason they lost their matchup. It’s important to have depth so that you can keep your team rolling while your starters play out their bye. As week 4 and the bye weeks begin we will be looking at those guys that can take the place of our starters for the week and which ones can’t.

Last week I used the numbers to determine the best plays for the week and I went about 50% correct. That just shows the unpredictability of fantasy football. This week I’m not going to throw a bunch of numbers at you, but instead I’ll use some logic to determine which players will go off. Call this my little experiment on the better manner to prognosticate player performance.

STUDS

Quarterbacks:

Shaun Hill v. Green Bay
The opportunity for Hill to throw will be there. First RB Jahvid Best is hurt. Then you know the Pack will take the lead early and the Lions will need to throw to catch up. Finally, the Packers did a good job stopping Bears’ running back Matt Forte last week so you can expect more of the same. If you need a one week fix in two quarterback leagues, Hill is a good option.

Bruce Gradkowski v. Houston
Opposing quarterbacks vs. Houston: Peyton Manning 433 yards and 3 TDs, Donovan McNabb 426 yards and 1 TD, and Tony Romo 284 yards and 2 TDs. Needless to say, Gradkowski is a good bye week replacement.

Running Backs:

LaDanian Tomlinson v. Buffalo
Buffalo is terrible against the run. If you have read previous articles then you know that I think the Bills are bad in all facets of the game. So I say the Jets take an early lead in this one and depend on their running back tandem throughout the game with LT outperforming fellow back, Shonn Greene.

LeSean McCoy v. Washington
The Rams running backs came out and dominated the ‘Skins for over a hundred yards last week. Oh yeah, the Redskins stacked the box and forced rookie Sam Bradford to beat them. This week, they do not have that luxury and that will open up big runs for McCoy.

Wide receivers:

Hakeem Nicks v. Chicago
Mario Manningham is coming off a concussion and the Bears defense put a halt to the Packers run game last week. So that means a lot of targets for the Giants #2 receiver.

Donald Driver v. Detroit
If you own Driver and have players on a bye this week you probably will be starting him. I’m here to tell you that you should start him regardless. Brandon Jackson has been terrible since filling in as a starter for Ryan Grant and for the Packers to be successful they will need to throw it. So that works out for Driver, this week and beyond.

Tight End:

Tony Scheffler v. Green Bay
The Packers let the seldom used Greg Olsen go for 5 catches, 64 yards, and a touchdown. I’ve already mentioned the throwing philosophy for the Lions so it stands to figure that Scheffler will produce another solid game.

DUDS

Quarterbacks:

Carson Palmer v. Cleveland
Palmer has been a huge disappointment this year. He has two above average receivers (Owens and Ochocinco), a good slot receiver (Shipley), a good tight end (Gresham), and a top 15 running back. Still he can’t put it together and lead a decent aerial attack. I wouldn’t trust him on my team until he strings together a couple of good weeks.

Vince Young v. Denver
Young has been inconsistent and hesitant this year. Denver held Peyton Manning in check, well as much as possible. Those two things do not add up to a promising Sunday for Young. If you’re thinking about starting him, I’d look elsewhere.

Running Backs:

Brandon Jackson v. Detroit
In two weeks as a starter, Jackson has 18 carries for 42 yards. Don’t start him, I warned you.

Peyton Hillis v. Cincinnati
I know Hillis is a hot commodity after he punished the Ravens Defense for 144 yards and a touchdown- through the ground alone. But the Bengals D have been playing out of their mind and I expect them to continue. Plus I expect the Cleveland Offense to be standing on the sidelines a lot as the Bengals try to control the clock.

Wide Receivers

Kenny Britt v. Denver
See Vince Young above and add the fact that Britt is wildly inconsistent and that fantasy owners are in love with his potential. But potential gets GMs fired and it makes fantasy owners cry. Avoid all Titans receivers this week.

Steve Smith (Car) v. New Orleans
I actually do not think that Clausen being out there will hurt Smith as much as people think. I feel like they just need time to get their timing together. However, I don’t see that happening until the bye week. Therefore I’d avoid Smith at this time.

Tight End:

John Carlson v. St. Louis
Carlson had a big game and a lot of targets against the Chargers last week but they are yearly one of the worst teams against tight ends. This week, the ‘Hawks play the Rams who tend not to let tight ends score. I’d temper my expectations a bit and look elsewhere.

NFL Pick'Em Challenge: Week 4

This week our picks come from Manuel T. Manuel is looking to top our co-leaders, Dominic and Basilio. Because there are less games due to the bye week, Manuel will only need to get a higher percentage right than the previous contestants. We want to wish Manuel luck and see if he can take the lead atop the standings. Here are Manuel's picks:

St. Louis over Seattle
Atlanta over San Francisco
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
Tennessee over Denver
New York Jets over Buffalo
Cincinnati over Cleveland
New Orleans over Carolina
Green Bay over Detroit
Houston over Oakland
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Philadelphia over Washington
San Diego over Arizona
Chicago over New York Giants
Miami over New England

Starting 5 Challenge: Week 4

This time we have a familiar name back for another go around with The Post. Dominic M., our current co-leader of the NFL Pick'Em is back but this time taking his shot at The Post in our Starting 5 Challenge. Let's look at both teams' Starting 5:

Fantasy Football Post:

QB: Philip Rivers v. Arizona
RB: Chris Johnson v. Denver
WR: Wes Welker v. Miami
TE: Dallas Clark v. Jacksonville
K: Stephen Gostkowski v. Miami

Dominic M.:

QB: Peyton Manning v. Jacksonville
RB: Arian Foster v. Oakland
WR: Brandon Marshall v. New England
TE: Antonio Gates v. Arizona
K: Robbie Gould v. New York Giants

Now that the teams are set, we'll see if we can stop our losing streak. As always, if we can't beat our opponent, then Dominic will win entry into our raffle for the autographed football to be held at the end of the NFL regular season. Good luck to both teams, but especially ours. Remember that there is still time to submit your pick'em picks for this week. Send them to postfantasyfootball@gmail.com by tomorrow for a chance to dethrone our aforementioned challenger Dominic and his co-leader, Basilio.

What I Learned This Weekend: Week 3

English Poet, William Blake once said “It’s easier to forgive an enemy than a friend.” This saying brings me to my friends and the weekend that just passed. This weekend three friends and I went to the sports bar to catch the morning games. As we were sitting there I became tongue-tied when talking to our waitress and had an embarrassing moment. I’ll spare you the details I’m sure you’re not interested and if I told you the story it would be a big let down.

Well since my friends are truly great they proceeded to tease me for the next three hours. When other people would come by they would include them in the joke until they had felt like they had been there to witness the event. Anyway, it was an annoying weekend and it left me bothered with my buddies. It’s kind of like some of my “fantasy friends” whom I drafted but no longer can stand to be around. They’ve broken my trust and at this point I would love to get them off my roster but I know that if I do then I will probably not get true value for them. This weekend I learned that my friends are jerks. Actually, I already knew that, but I forgive them because they are reading this article right now. Thanks for the support. This weekend I learned that I lost a few fantasy friends.

This weekend I learned that Dwayne Bowe is no longer a friend. Seriously, 7 catches man! Bowe has 7 catches and don’t be fooled by that trick play touchdown that he scored last week. The KC pass attack looks awful and Bowe and his owners are suffering. That’s why he and I aren’t friends anymore. If he’s on your team, make him and your bench BFFs.

I also learned that Michael Crabtree and I aren’t friends no more. If you thought Bowe was bad, Crab is even worse. 6 catches and 0 touchdowns! I’m hoping that the firing of Jimmy Raye helps this offense because it can’t hurt it any. However, I’m not optimistic. My solution, get a new quarterback, coach, and coaching staff. Then maybe, just maybe, Crabtree will do something.

This weekend showed me that I can’t trust Donovan McNabb to beat anybody. I believe that McNabb has the skill set but he isn’t putting it together and into the endzone. However, he’s still got Cooley and Santana Moss, so there’s hope. But he couldn’t throw more than one touchdown against the Rams. And they’ were playing from behind! C’mon man. If that lousy bum of Kevin Kolb were still on my team we’d be talking about him but instead we’re talking about McNasty.

Finally, I’m no longer friends with Ricky Williams. How are you going to average 40 yards a game while your quarterback does nothing the first two games? To add insult to more insult his team is 2-1. Yeah, there is some motivation to get out there and run the ball more. I like his chances best of all to bounce back but I just don’t trust the Dolphins to give him the opportunity.

With some friends you need to stick it out, you’ve got to much invested in your friendship. Then with some other guys it’s time to cut the ties. I can’t tell you which relationships you should end and which you should continue pursuing (at least not in this article). I’m not a psychologist or a relationship expert. However, it’s time you start taking note of the friends that let you down and decide if you can trust them the rest of the way. The next couple of weeks will begin to shape the direction your team will take.

Challenges

Congratulations to Carlos Y. for beating The Post, 30-17. It's the second straight week that we are beaten by one of our readers, which continues to prove that we have some of the most knowledgeable readers in the business. Carlos is our second entrant in our raffle for the autographed football. I would hate to be our next contestant as we can assure you we will be putting our optimum lineup out there once again and we will do our best to end this streak. With that in mind, here is our Starting 5:

QB: Philip Rivers v. Arizona
RB: Chris Johnson v. Denver
WR: Wes Welker v. Miami
TE: Dallas Clark v. Jacksonville
K: Stephen Gostkowski v. Miami

In the NFL Pick'Em Basilio G. came up huge and went 10-16 for a percentage of .625 and a share of first place with Dominic M. These two guys are the ones to beat so send in your picks by Saturday in hopes of getting the opportunity to pass them up.

Do you want to go up against The Post in our Starting 5 Challenge? Or do you want to dethrone Basilio and Dominic in our NFL Pick'Em Challenge? Well then send your Starting 5 (By Thursday) or Picks (By Saturday) to postfantasyfootball@gmail.com. Let's start preparing for Week 4, the first of the bye weeks.